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New Poll Shows Who Would Win in a Trump vs. Biden 2024 Election

Various polls since President Joe Biden took office have asked Americans if they approve of how he is handling his job as president and if they would vote for him again. A recent poll showed that California voters would prefer Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom over Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee in 2024 if Biden does not run again. A poll published this week asked Americans if they would vote for Biden or former President Donald Trump if the 2024 presidential election were held today.

A new poll from the Wall Street Journal published on Thursday shows that President Joe Biden would defeat former President Donald Trump if the 2024 election were held today. 

In the poll, the respondents were asked, “if the 2024 election for President were held today and the candidates were Joe Biden, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, for whom would you vote?”

Fifty percent of respondents said they would “definitely” or “probably” vote for Biden. Forty-four percent of respondents said they would “definitely” or “probably” vote for Trump.

In March, the WSJ poll showed that Biden and Trump were tied with 45 percent support for each. August’s findings also showed the Democrats had a “slight edge” over the GOP when respondents were asked which party they will vote for for Congress.

“Democrats hold a slight edge over Republicans, 47% to 44%, when voters are asked which party they would support in their congressional district if the election were held today, a lead that is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points. Republicans had a five-point advantage in March.

WSJ noted in its write-up of the results that the Democratic gains come from support among women, independents and young voters.

“Republicans were cruising, and Democrats were having a hard time,” said Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio, who conducted the survey with Democrat John Anzalone. “It’s almost like the abortion issue came along and was kind of like a defibrillator to Democrats.”

WSJ pointed out that more than half of voters say the Supreme Court’s overturn of Roe v. Wade has made them more likely to vote.

“Male independents did not really change,” Fabrizio said. “Female independents, because of the abortion issue, changed their opinions and their votes.’’

On the issue of the economy, 64 percent of respondents said the economy is “poor” or “not so good.” Sixty-two percent said that the economy is going in the wrong direction.

Voters have turned even more pessimistic about the economy in recent months and they trust the Republican Party most to respond…Voters believe Republicans are better able to get inflation under control—by a 12-point margin—and by narrower margins think the GOP has the better economic plan and is most able to reduce the federal deficit.

The Wall Street Journal poll surveyed 1,313 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points. The poll was conducted from Aug. 17-25 by Impact Research and Fabrizio, Lee & Associates.

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